View Full Version : Success Rates from Cold Approaches

03-06-2008, 12:50 PM
I'm curious what rate of success everyone has in pure cold approaches, where there is no previous connection with the girl, no introductions, etc.

There are tons of FRs on the forum which are great, but they don't show how much work goes into every success. I searched a lot on the forum, but couldn't find any thread which directly addresses the issue of success rate in detail (lemme know if there is one!).

I thought that sharing success rates would be interesting for everyone. And I think it will also pump up those guys (and I was there myself til about 2 years ago) who are bummed because they get rejected 7 times for every 1 success... when instead they should reframe and be pumped to have a 12% success rate. Gotta take those rejections and let them roll off like water in order to get the glory!! ;-)

How to best share success rates? The success rate depends on lots of factors: cold approach vs. social circle, type / quality of girl, type of venue, etc. So rather than just say "20%", I thought the best way to share would be to describe the type of situation(s) you sarge, then try to give the success rate in that situation.

So... I'll start with my success rate in the situations I typically sarge:

Situation: Trendy clubs in NYC and London, targetting HB8-10s, ages 18-24 (gotta loves those fake ids). Me: 31 y.o., average looks and body, been sarging a lot for 2 years.
Results: Can open around 90% of sets. Same-night lay around 1 out of every 30 targets. Number-close about 20% of targets. Of the number closes, I end up f-closing around 1 out 6, i.e f-close 3% out of targets via a number-close. So net-net, i get f-closes either that night or later with around 6% of the targets. (Kiss-closes are worthless to me. I don't count them one way or the other. It's f-close or bust, baby!).

Situation: Nice, upscale bars in NYC and London, targetting HB7s-HB9s, ages 21-26.
Results: Can open 98% of sets (there's always some wackos even at these places who no one can open). Same-night lay around 1 out of every 15. Number-close around 35% of targets, end up f-closing around 1 out of 4 of those. So f-close around 15% of targets either that night or later.

Let's see how it is for everyone else!

03-07-2008, 10:15 AM
i like your attempt to logicalize this. but

you can't really factor in that different people have different levels of experience, different ways to sarge, and sometimes even the same PUA will sarge different with different girls, depending on her IL. Also, one PUA might put more effort than another. But then again, we're all doing similiar things, like acting aloof and confident..so it was all the same experienced PUA this would be a good one

03-08-2008, 07:24 AM
Hi BossOne -

so if it was all the same experienced PUAs, this would be a good [question]

I agree with you that experience is really key to answer the question of success rate. It's the law of large numbers: until you have hundreds, and more realistically, thousands of approaches under your belt, it's a waste to try to quantify the success rate.

But what's very true is that once you do have thousands of approaches under your belt, patterns emerge. I've been sarging hard for 2 years now and have cold approached thousands of sets. I don't keep incredibly detailed records (it'd be practically impossible unless you have a statistician following you all the time, kinda like the Bill James of the PUA scene, haha), but I do have a fairly precise estimate based on the number of successes and the number of approaches I do in each bar/club. And for me, this success rate has been fairly steady for the last year.

you can't really factor in that different people have different levels of experience, different ways to sarge

Definitely agree! So let's see what success rate people of different experiences and different styles have. It's clear to me that some situations are easier, some harder... and some PUAs have more success in certain situations that others. So let's try to understand it! ;-) Lemme know what suggestions you have on how to better share our success rates!

So, for all you PUAs out there who've sarged enough to have a decent sized sample set, what type of success rates do you have in the different situations you sarge in?